A TSUNAMI MEMORY FROM CYCLONE NARGIS

Every day the numbers rise.

Cyclone Nargis has extracted a deadly price in isolated Burma killing nearly 22,500 people as of May 7th with another 41,000 reported missing. But to the witless military junta this appears inconsequential as they are looking to go ahead with a referendum on a new constitution likely to cement their rule.

I’m not about to discuss the merits (of which there are few) and demerits of the Burmese rulers. Instead, their response, or lack of it, reminded me of India’s response to the Indian Ocean tsunami in December 2004.

I was at the Marina Beach in those early hours after the tsunami struck trying to make sense of what was happening because I was covering it for NDTV. I could only confirm 6 deaths in my first live phone interview at 10 am. By 5 pm the figure had jumped to 200 and across south east Asia the toll was 200,000 - quite like the situation in Burma which began with a toll of 351 and has risen alarmingly in the last 3 days.

The world is begging the Burmese junta to accept foreign aid because they need it. It will make the difference between survival and death for its citizens. India had also refused tsunami aid but for entirely different reasons. Keen to prove its dominance in the region and equally eager to keep the US out of its zone of influence, India said “thanks but no thanks.” We wanted to prove that not only could we manage our own affairs, we could help our neighbours too.

And in those early days after the tsunami, I’ll say we sure did. On the Indian mainland in worst hit Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa’s government did an outstanding job clearing bodies, cordoning off the beach, shifting people into temporary shelters, providing food and sanitizing the disaster zone. This doesn’t mean that things were working like clockwork, falling into place like a well-rehearsed drill. Quite the contrary because there was a fair degree of confusion and overlap in duties. The effort was outstanding because of the sudden injection of energy, commitment and creativity into the government machinery and its visible presence everywhere. No one could complain that the government didn’t care about them or wasn’t working for them. For someone whose default position is to be anti-establishment this was a refreshing revelation – when push comes to shove the government can deliver. Some of the smartest bureaucrats in Tamil Nadu were on the job leaving the western press a little incredulous that India remained disease free and the situation hadn’t descended into anarchy.

Of course there is an exception here too. Government response in the Andaman and Nicobar islands came late. This had as much to do with inefficiency as it had to do with the fact that island infrastructure was very badly battered. Ayesha Majid, a tribal leader gave an angry TV interview saying if the government didn’t want to help them that was fine but that it should stop lying to the world that everything was under control because her community was shattered and marooned.

But soon the exception became the norm. As people started sensing the opportunities in the midst of grief things changed. The zeal with which government officers had worked was later channeled towards siphoning off aid. The nationalist commitment slowly receded and the old demons of corruption and deceit surfaced once again. And I returned squarely to my default position.

However, it was wonderful, in those brief first few days, to see an Indian government that is capable of so much but alas, does so little.

THE WORLD’S LARGEST DEMOCRACY – SHOULD STAND UP FOR IT

‘Don’t go for gas, go for democracy.’

As India’s petroleum minister drove to the New Delhi airport on his way to Burma (Myanmar), pro-democracy protesters lined the streets with this message. But even as blood flowed on the streets of Rangoon, India went with blinders on, just for the oil.

Last week in mysterious, isolated Burma, democracy was crushed once again. Buddhist monks spearheading a new pro-democracy struggle were rounded up, beaten, jailed, and even killed when they rose up against the repression of their military rulers. The desperate Burmese looked to India for help and moral support because none was forthcoming from China. But India’s response was frustratingly typical. Like an ostrich sensing trouble – India buried its head in the sand, calling the protests Burma’s “internal matter.”

The world’s largest democracy, India, must shed this timidity, and mark its presence on the international stage by wielding more influence in the region. This fence-sitting is terrible for its image.

Boasting an annual growth rate of more than 9%, India has significant energy interests that have overtaken principled foreign policy issues. But the return on investment thus far in Burma is so below par that even the two main issues of the politics of realism or realpolitik do not justify India’s silence.

First, energy hungry China and India are competing for Burma’s natural gas and oil reserves. To achieve this, India started wooing the military junta in 1994. But in the last 13 years India has received no gas from Burma. Indeed, a few weeks ago, two contracts were awarded to PetroChina.

Second, Burma shares a border with India’s volatile north-east, plagued by tribal insurgency. India believes it needs the Burmese military’s help to flush out insurgents setting up training camps on the Burmese side. But, of the many groups that operate there, the Burmese army has taken action against only one, with whom India had a ceasefire anyway. Burma even receives arms and ammunition from India for these so-called counter-insurgency operations.

It seems then that tiny, dictatorial Burma benefits more from this relationship with India than the other way around. That’s pathetic for a country that likes the title of ‘superpower’. Now is the time to enhance that reputation because India has gained little from Burma anyway.
Besides, India can’t wish away Burma’s struggle for democracy. Economists warn that the uprisings will keep returning to political centre-stage in Burma because of the fragile nature of its economy. The Army has made most Burmese hopelessly poor. This latest struggle began on August 15th when the junta recklessly withdrew fuel subsidies. The price of gas went through the roof, rising almost 500%. Most Burmese could not even afford a bus ride. The Generals are handling the economy so poorly, that unrest might become a permanent feature in Burma. Given this situation, India will have to deal with its eastern neighbour sooner or later. It simply can’t afford to look away every time.

India must support democracy in Burma. As the only stable democracy in the region, it has the moral authority to preach it. It can’t justify supporting the dictators because it has gained nothing yet from the relationship economically either.

The Burmese have faced grave injustice for more than four decades. They want democracy but it’s been snatched from them with guns and violence every time.

Ironically on 15th August, when unrest began, India was celebrating its 60th year of independence. It’s time then for the world’s largest democracy to speak up boldly and stand up for freedom in its own backyard.